July 24, 2006
Daily Fx Market comments
By Realtimeforex
http://www.realtimeforex.com

EUR-USD
1.2691. Current upmove should end around 1.2743 - 1.2717 area. A correction down to below 1.2644 or even 1.2598 is expected. A rise above 1.2744 will abort the expected correction.

USD-CHF
1.2369. It should register further gains to 1.2424 while 1.2336 caps downside attempts. Stop loss below 1.2303 zone.

USD-JPY
116.19. It should see a sell off to below 115.63 while 116.38 area curtails its upside. A break beyond 116.93 will abort the downside.

GBP-USD
1.8584. Currently uptrend should end around 1.8658 - 1.8632 area. A correction down to below 1.8503 is expected. A rise above 1.8679 will abort the expected correction.

EUR-CHF
1.5698. It is likely to fall towards 1.5685 as its corrective rally could falter in 1.5708 - 1.5701 area. Stop above 1.5715 zone.

EUR-JPY
147.46. It should be subject to more sell off towards 146.93 or 146.41. Corrective upward swings should face resistance around 147.65 area. A break of 148.155 is bullish.

EUR-GBP
0.6829. One more dip to 0.6818 or 0.6806 is likely followed by a grind higher to above 0.6835 or 0.6852. After which it can resume its downtrend.

AUD-USD
0.7520. A correction down to 0.7493 or lower is now expected from 0.7518 or 0.7532. A break above 0.7571 is needed to turn bullish.

USD-CAD
1.1385. It looks set for gains to above 1.1433. Supports at 1.1324 and 1.1348. A break of 1.1300 will damage this bullish structure.


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June 30, 2006 9:12 GMT
Forex Trading Strategies
By Saxo Bank
http://www.saxobank.com

FOMC Raises Rates 25bp with dovish comments causing broad based USD Weakness. Japan shows strong data.
With the FED out of the way and future hikes in question the USD goes weak providing the market with direction

EUR/USD
We saw EURUD taking out key resistance levels after the FOMC at 1.2620 and again at 1.2695. The pair is now a buy on any dip and we expect a retest of 1.2979 in the upcoming weeks.

Resistance 1.2915 1.2767 1.2715 1.2728 1.2566 1.2469 1.2320 Support

GBP/USD
Despite the break of 1.8100 the pair came back very strong on USD weakness. Look to buy the pair on dips for a test of 1.8460 and further out a test of the high from May at 1.9023.

Resistance 1.8647 1.8435 1.8358 1.8361 1.8146 1.8011 1.7800 Support

USD/JPY
USDJPY was the big mover as the dovish FOMC and the strong Japanese data should send USDJPY significant lower in the weeks to come. Sell the rallies for a test of 114.35 and look add to shorts below this level for a test of 113.20.

Resistance 119.12 117.33 116.25 114.64 114.46 113.75 111.96 Support

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July 05,2006 10:47 GMT
Daily forecast of GBP/USD&EUR/JPY
By fx-dealer.com
http://www.fx-dealer.com

EUR/USD: The euro met strong resistance at 1.2840.

The euro met strong resistance at 1.2840 ahead of ECB rate comments tomorrow and US NF Payrolls due at Friday.
Trend: Neutral
Try shorts from 1.2800 target 1.2600 stop 1.2860.
Supports: 1.2700, 1.2750
Resistances: 1.2800, 1.2850

USD/CAD: Dollar-CAD was range-bound between 1.0950 and 1.1290.

 

Dollar-CAD was range-bound between 1.0950 and 1.1290 with some bearish bias.
Trend: Neutral.
Try shorts from 1.1140 target 1.0960 stop 1.1200.
Supports: 1.1050, 1.1000
Resistances: 1.1140, 1.1190


July 19, 2006 10:14 GMT.
Daily market analysis
By Investica Ltd
http://www.investica.co.uk

Dollar faces key test

The dollar found support just weaker than 1.2550 and tested important Euro support levels close to 1.2480 in New York with a dollar peak near 1.2475. The dollar was holding close to 1.2490 in early Europe on Wednesday.

The US data had a firm bias on Tuesday and offered some dollar support. There was a 0.5% increase in producer prices for June while there was a 0.2% underlying increase. The data was not particularly alarming, but the Fed will be concerned over an increase in intermediate prices as inflationary pressure could be spreading along the supply chain.

The Wednesday consumer inflation data and testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke will be very important for interest rate expectations and the dollar with the US currency vulnerable to heavy selling pressure if Bernanke suggests that rates will probably not be increased in August. A weak housing report would also complicate the Fed's task and unsettle the dollar. Strong data and testimony would tend to strengthen the dollar initially, but here could be a rapid reversal on fears that US growth will weaken sharply.

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July 21, 2006 09:00 GMT
Daily FX Research Team
http://www.dailyfx. com

EUR/USD Very little is changed from yesterday. EUR/USD has continued to move higher, albeit at a much slower pace than before. The pair has digested gains over the past 20 hours just below the 50% fibo of 1.2859-1.2456 at 1.2657. A push higher would challenge the 61.8% fibo at 1.2705. There is a downward channel forming from the 1.2976 high and this could be the beginning of a move to take the euro to the upper end of this channel near 1.2775. The confluence of the 61.8% fibo of 1.2976-1.2457 / trendline from 1.2976 intersects on July 28th. This also happens to be the 78.6% fibo of 1.2859-1.2456. Short term support is at yesterday’s low at 1.2585.

Level
Resistance
Details
1.2775
R3
61.8% of 1.2976-1.2456 & 78.6% of 1.2859-1.2456
1.2715
R2
50% of 1.2976-1.2456
1.2653
R1
38.2% of 1.2976-1.2456
Level
Support
Details
1.2585
S1
7/20 low
1.2531
S2
61.8% of 1.2456-1.2653
1.2498
S3
78.6% of 1.2456-1.2653

USD/JPY –USD/JPY continues to probe the downside following Wednesday’s outside day at the upper Bollinger band. It appears that yesterday’s rally to 117.11 was the choppy second wave of a larger 3 wave correction that could ultimately take the pair lower to a confluence of fibo supports – notably the combination of the 23.6% of 108.96-117.88 / 50% of 113.43-117.88 at 115.66/79. A push lower would then target the confluence of the 38.2% of 108.96-117.88 / 78.6% of 113.43-117.88 at 114.39/48. Resistance is at former intraday support / breakout point this morning at 116.54

Level
Resistance
Details
117.88
R3
7/19 high
117.37
R2
61.8% of 117.88-116.54
117.04
R1
38.2% of 117.88-116.54
Level
Support
Details
116.18
S1
38.2% of 113.43-117.88
115.66
S2
50% of 113.43-117.88
114.38
S3
78.6% of 113.43-117.88

GBP/USD –We continue to hold the view from yesterday that the “first target for the end of this rally would be where the rally from 1.8176 equals the rally from 1.8090-1.8539 (449 pips) – which would be (1.8176 + .0449 = 1.8625). This is reinforced by the 61.8% fibo of 1.9025-1.8090 at 1.8666. The pair is overbought on the hourly, so look for support near the 7/17 high at 1.8394.” The pair is currently testing important resistance from daily highs at 1.8539 (7/7) and 1.8556 (6/16). Due to the rapid move to the upside, meaningful support is not until today’s low at 1.8466.

Level Resistance Details
1.8775 R3 6/6 high
1.8666 R2 61.8% of 1.9025-1.8090
1.8556 R1 6/16 high
Level Support Details
1.8394 S1 7/17 high
1.8352 S2
 50% of 1.8227-1.8477
1.8323 S3

61.8% of 1.8227-1.8477

USD/CHF –USD/CHF has broken through the 1.2450 level and currently tests support from the 38.2% fibo of 1.2190-1.2595 at 1.2392. There is an upward sloping channel that is forming on the daily chart from the 1.1919 low and the supporting line comes in at 1.2255 (the trendline increases roughly 7 pips per day). Bullish divergence with RSI on the hourly along with RSI in oversold territory argues for a bounce in the near term. The 7/18 and 7/19 lows at 1.2444/47 are immediate resistance.

Level Resistance Details
1.2595 R3 7/19 high
1.2538 R2 61.8% of 1.2595-1.2447
1.2502 R1 38.2% of 1.2595-1.2447
Level Support Details
1.2377 S1 7/14 high
1.2337 S2
 38.2% of 1.1919-1.2595
1.2258 S3

50% of 1.1919-1.2525

USD/CAD –USD/CAD is rapidly approaching the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 1.1039-1.1406 / 7/14 low at 1.1255/66. If support holds, then look for a resumption of strength from the break above the ascending triangle on the daily. However, a break lower indicates that the pair is in for a deeper retracement – perhaps to the 50% fibo / 7/11 low at 1.1221. The 7/18 low at 1.1304 provides resistance.

Level Resistance Details
1.1406 R3 7/19 high
1.1352 R2 7/20 high
1.1304 R1 7/18 low
Level Support Details
1.1266 S1 38.2% of 1.1039-1.1406
1.1222 S2
 50% of 1.1039-1.1398
1.1178 S3

61.8% of 1.1039-1.1398

AUD/USD –AUD/USD corrected lower to just below the .7500 figure before moving an impulsive move higher to .7520. The pair continues to hold above a short term resisting trendline from the .7565 high on 7/13. Scope does remain for a deeper correction on a failure at the .7530 high from yesterday, potentially to the 38.2% fibo of .7403-.7512 at .7470. This is also former intraday support. The long wick on the daily candle (Wednesday) is bullish and a continuation of the move higher challenges the 7/13 high at .7565.

Level Resistance Details
.7592 R3 61.8% of .7791-.7270
.7565 R2 7/13 high
.7537 R1 7/17 high
Level Support Details
.7470 S1 38.2% of .7403-.7512
.7445 S2
 61.8% of .7403-.7512
.7403 S3

7/19 low

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